有限需求信息条件下鲜活农产品的批发商订货决策研究

Research on the Decision Making of Wholesaler Order of Fresh Living Agricultural Products Under the Condition of Limited Demand Information

鲜活农产品具有需求波动大、需求信息相对有限和保质期比较固定等特点,其订货决策相对困难。本文针对有限需求信息条件下鲜活农产品的批发商订货决策问题进行研究。首先,从需求预测角度对鲜活农产品有限需求信息进行分类;其次,利用组合预测模型对鲜活农产品预测点的需求进行预测;在此基础上,结合误差补偿以历史销售数据的误差累计分布代替预测点需求预测的误差累计分布,进而得到鲜活农产品预测点的需求累计分布,并采用随机性存储模型确定鲜活农产品的订货量,解决鲜活农产品批发商的订货问题;最后,结合实例进行鲜活农产品的批发商订货决策应用。该订货决策方法避免了有限需求信息条件下,直接对鲜活农产品的历史销售数据进行分布拟合所带来的误差,为鲜活农产品批发商订货决策提供指导。

It is difficult to make ordering decision on fresh living agricultural products because large demand fluctuation,limited information about demand and relatively fixed shelf life.The ordering decision issues of wholesaler's fresh living agricultural products were studied under the limited information about demand.First of all,from the perspective of demand forecast,limited demand information of fresh living agricultural products was classified.Then the demand at the predicting point of fresh living agricultural products was forecast by using the combination forecasting model.Based on this,combined with error com pensation,the cumulative distribution for the demand of fresh living agricultural products on prediction points was obtained by using the cumulative distribution of the error on historical sales data instead of the cumulative distribution of the error on producing points.The random storage model was used to determine the ordering quantity of fresh living agricultural products,which solved the ordering problem of fresh living agricultural products for wholesalers.Finally,empirical study was applied to make ordering decision on fresh living agricultural products.The order decision method avoided the error caused by the direct distribution fitting of the historical sales data of fresh agricultural products under the condition of limited demard information,which provided guidance for wholesalers'ordering decisions about fresh living agricultural products.