农业碳排放的驱动因素与退耦效应研究——以长江经济带为例

Research on Driving Factors and Decoupling Effects of Agricultural Carbon Emissions—Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an Example

利用LMDI分解模型探讨长江经济带农业碳排放各种影响因素的贡献值,再逐年分析其碳排放增速和经济增长之间的退耦效应。结果表明,长江经济带农业碳排放在2010—2019年呈现出先缓慢增长后快速下降的趋势。农业经济发展对长江经济带农业碳排放起极大的促进作用,而农业生产效率、劳动力规模和生产结构对长江经济带农业碳排放有较为明显的抑制作用。2010—2019年退耦指数有增大的趋势,说明政府出台的节能减排政策正在被有效执行,对二氧化碳排放的抑制效果不断增强。

The LMDI decomposition model was used to explore the contribution value of various influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone,and then the decoupling effect between the growth rate of carbon emissions and economic growth was analyzed year by year.The results showed that the agricultural carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Zone showed a slow growth first and then a rapid decline from 2010 to 2019.The agricultural economy development had greatly promoted agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone,and agricultural production efficiency,labor scale and production structure had a relatively obvious inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.The decoupling index had a tendency to increase from 2010 to 2019,indicating that the government's energy saving and emission reduction policies were being effectively implemented,and the effect of suppressing carbon dioxide emissions was continuously increasing.