探析雾霾归因路径中的思维定势和偏差——基于信息加工及传播的视角

Exploring Cognitive Stereotyping and Bias in the Attribution of Smog Formation in Beijing—Based on the Information Processing and Communication Approach

近年来京津冀地区针对空气污染的“蓝天保卫战”成效显著,但其“区域复合型”污染的防治依然复杂、耗时。在此过程中饱受过雾霾困扰的北京居民都有何关切及困惑值得探究。通过问卷统计与质性访谈相结合的方式,本课题组发现,受访者对于雾霾成因的认知存在明显分歧,尤其会围绕“汽车尾气是否为主因”延伸出两元对立思维,并由此而产生出证实偏差及错觉关联以维系各自信念体系。另外还有受访者能结合情景性因素进行启发式推断,比如从周边工业排放和冬季供暖共性中强调过于依赖燃煤的危害性。这些思维定势及偏差为如何引导政策认知及凝聚治理共识提供了相应启示。

The“Blue Sky”campaign aiming to tackle the air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has progressed well,but it still requires a great deal of patience and efforts to curb such a complex problem as the smog.By using a mixed method of surveys and interviews,this study investigates Beijing residents perceptions of what caused the smog as a way of understanding public concerns and policy implications.It finds opinions diverge greatly,especially with a dichotomy over whether car emission is the main cause,within the explanatory framework of which confirmation bias and illusory correlation are further developed.Moreover,contextual factors are referred to for heuristics in which,for example,high-sulphur coals are singled out to reflect the common problem between heavy industries and winter heating.