马尔可夫链在龙江中长期水文预报中的应用

Application of Markov chain model in mid-and long-term hydrological forecast of Longjiang River

介绍了马尔可夫链模型的基本原理及其计算步骤。以金城江水文站1957—2015年的年径流量为分析数据,通过马尔可夫定性预测,利用多步状态转移概率矩阵对金城江水文站2016—2018年的径流趋势进行了预测。以金城江水文站1957—2018年的年径流量为分析数据,对2019—2020年的年径流量进行预测,并进行了合格率检验。通过对金城江水文站年径流量的探究,对预测未来水情和水资源的合理利用具有重要意义。该方法可作为金城江水文站水文定性预报的实用方法。

An introduction was made on the basic principles and calculation procedures of Markov chain model.Based on analysis of the annual runoff data of Jinchengjiang Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2015,Markov quali⁃tative prediction was conducted,and the runoff trend of Jinchengjiang Station from 2016 to 2018 was predicted by use of multistep state transition probability matrix.Based on analysis of the annual runoff data of Jinchengjiang Hy⁃drological Station from 1957 to 2018,the annual runoff from 2019 to 2020 was predicted and the qualified rate was inspected.The study of annual runoff of Jinchengjiang Hydrological Station is important for regime prediction and proper utilization of water resources.It is a practical hydrological qualitative prediction method for Jinchengjiang Station.