台湾地区政党轮替影响经济表现的传导机制——基于投资风险引致视角的经验考察

The Transmission Mechanism of Political Party Rotation Affecting Economic Performance in Taiwan:An Empirical Investigation Base on the Perspective of Investment Risk

2000年以来,台湾地区已完成三次政党轮替,而经济形势却未随之有所改善。研究发现:国民党与民进党在台湾轮流执政,施政重心均从经济发展转为政治斗争,政治凌驾于经济之上;行政首长频繁更换、立法机构掣肘行政部门、酬庸性质的人事任命,大大降低了行政效率,严重拖累公共政策的推行;财经政策急功近利、摇摆不定,重创当局信誉,削弱了台湾的投资吸引力;基于胜选考量大开政策福利支票、因应两岸紧张局势增加防务特别预算,从而大量挤占经济发展资源;动荡乃至恶化的两岸关系增加了侨外投资的政治风险,加大了台湾参与区域经济整合的难度,减少了台湾分享大陆经济发展红利的机会。研究认为,台湾地区三次政党轮替升高了国、民两党冲突,从“政治化”经济问题、放大政治体制弊端、增加财经政策不确定性、扭曲财税预算分配、加剧台海动荡等方面破坏了岛内投资环境,推高了岛内投资成本,从而使台湾经济陷入低投资、低增长困境。

Taiwan has achieved three political party rotations since 2000,but its economic situation has not improved.The study found that as the KMT and DPP have taken turns in power in Taiwan,the focus of the governance has shifted from economic development to political struggle,with politics taking precedence over economics,and the frequent change of the chief executive,the legislative constraints on the executive bodies and the appointment of personnel with a rewarding character have greatly reduced the administrative efficiency and seriously slowed down the implementation of public policies.On the other hand,seeking quick success and instant benefits and wavering in financial and economic policies have seriously damaged the government's credibility and weakened Taiwan's investment attraction.The policy welfare checks issued on the basis of election considerations and the special budget for“national defense”in response to the increase in the crossStrait tensions have greatly squeezed the resources of economic development.Moreover,the turbulent and even deteriorating cross-Strait relations have increased the political risks of foreign investment in Taiwan,making it more difficult for Taiwan to participate in regional economic integration,and reducing Taiwan's opportunity to share in the dividends of economic development in the mainland.The study concludes that the three times'political party rotations in Taiwan have aggravated the conflict between the KMT and DPP,and in terms of the high“politicization”of its economic issues,the magnification of the disadvantages of the constitutional system,the increase of the uncertainty of the financial and economic policies,the distortion of the allocation of the financial budget,and the intensification of the instability of the cross-strait relations,they have damaged the investment environment and pushed up the investment cost on the island,thus plunging Taiwan economy into a predicament of low investment and low growth.