下行猪周期对生猪养殖公司的影响及建议

Influence of Downward Phase of Hog Cycle on Hog Breeding Companies and Corresponding Suggestions

2021年6月18日,国家发改委发布生猪价格过度下跌三级预警,提醒广大养殖户科学安排生产经营决策,将生猪产能保持在合理水平。随着生猪生产加快恢复,市场供应持续增加,全国猪肉价格进入下行通道,生猪均价连续20周下跌,导致生猪养殖上市公司利润下滑,出现不同程度亏损。文章基于2006年以来四轮猪周期的进程,分析了近期生猪价格下跌的原因,梳理了生猪养殖上市公司经营模式、2020年与2021年第一季度业绩情况及目前面临的主要问题,并据此提出建议,以供参考。

On June 18, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) issued a level 3 warning of excessive decline in hog prices, reminding all farmers to scientifically make production and operation decisions to keep hog production capacity at a reasonable level. With the rapid recovery of hog production and continuous increase in market supply,pork prices all over the country suffered from downward pressure and the average price of hog fell for 20 consecutive weeks,leading to a decline in profits and losses with different degrees for listed hog breeding companies. Based on the four rounds of hog cycle since 2006, this paper analyzes the reasons for the recent decline in hog prices, sorts out the business model of listed hog breeding companies, their business performance in the first quarter of 2020 and 2021 and the main problems they are currently facing, and makes suggestions accordingly for reference.