金融安全风险感知的社交网络空间溢出效应研究——来自COVID-19期间中国省级面板数据的证据

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Financial Risk Perception in Social Networks: Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data during the COVID-19 Pandemic

社交网络在提高金融市场信息透明度的同时,也成为金融安全风险传导的新渠道。基于风险感知溢出模型,研究金融安全风险感知在社交网络中的扩散机理,以中国31个省级行政区(港澳台地区除外)为研究对象,根据COVID-19期间社交网络文本信息构建区域风险感知指数,运用空间计量模型进一步验证风险感知的空间溢出效应,研究发现,基于社交网络信息的金融安全风险感知具有明显的正向空间自相关性,地区疫情变化与金融市场繁荣程度对周边地区的金融安全风险感知程度有显著的正向空间溢出效应;面对重大突发事件,中国舆情环境能够有效引导投资者情绪保持稳定。研究结果为有效监管金融安全风险感知的跨区域传导,提升金融市场抗风险能力提供了理论支撑。

While social networks have improved the information transparency of financial markets,they have also emerged as a channel for the transmission of financial risk.Based on the risk perception spillover model,this study examines the diffusion mechanisms of financial risk perception in social networks.Specifically,the 31 provincial administrative regions in China's Mainland were used as the focus of research,and a regional risk perception index was composed based on textual information extracted from social networks during the COVID-19 pandemic.A spatial econometric model was introduced to further validate the spatial spillover effect of risk perception.The results showed that financial risk perception of the investigated social networks presented noticeable positive spatial autocorrelation.Changes in regional epidemics and financial market prosperity had a significant positive spatial spillover effect on financial risk perception in surrounding regions.When faced with major emergencies,the environment of China’s public opinion stabilized investor sentiment.The findings provided theoretical support for the effective supervision of cross-regional transmission in financial risk perception,as well as the promotional relevance of anti-risk capabilities of financial markets.