外需冲击下多元化策略如何影响企业出口韧性

Can Diversification Strategy Enhance Export Resilience of the Enterprises

2020年以来新冠肺炎疫情蔓延导致外部市场需求遭受剧烈冲击,凸显中国企业在外部冲击下保持出口强韧性的重要性。文章将企业出口韧性界定为风险抵御能力和出口恢复能力两方面,探究出口多元化策略对中国企业出口韧性的影响。结果表明:出口多元化水平越高,企业抵御风险的能力越强、出口恢复速度特别是从冲击中企稳的速度越快;相较于产品多元化,市场多元化策略更有利于企业出口韧性的提高;多元化策略能够熨平外部需求下降对企业出口的负面影响,但不利于外部需求上升对企业出口恢复的拉动;多元化水平高的企业更容易在危机中调整出口组合;多元化策略尤其是产品多元化关联性越弱,对企业出口韧性的促进作用越强。

The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic around the world has caused severe shocks in external market demand since 2020,highlighting the importance of maintaining export resilience of China’s enterprises under external shocks.This paper defines export resilience of the enterprises as risk resistance ability and export recovery ability,and explores the impact of export diversification strategy on export resilience of China’s enterprises.The results show that:the higher the level of export diversification,the stronger the enterprises’ability to resist risks and the faster the export recovery speed,especially the speed of stabilizing from the shock;compared with product diversification,market diversification strategy is more conducive to the improvement of export resilience of the enterprises;the diversification strategy can smooth the negative impact of the decline in external demand on the export of the enterprises,but it is not conducive to the pull of the rise of external demand on the export recovery of the enterprises;the enterprises with a high level of diversification are more likely to adjust their export portfolios in the crisis;the weaker the correlation of diversification strategy,especially product diversification strategy,the stronger its promotion effect on export resilience of the enterprises.