我国非关税措施如何影响了货物进口——基于1992~2012年HS-6位产品的实证检验

How do China’s Non-tariff Measures Affect Import

当前,国际贸易呈现关税自由化与非关税措施(NTMs)逐渐上升新趋势。文章通过筛选我国官方文件和通告中的NTMs,并将其与1992~2012年间我国HS-6位产品关税和进口数据匹配,实证探讨NTMs对货物进口的影响。文章发现:我国实施的NTMs平均抑制了进口概率和进口来源国数目的增加,促进了进口额与进口产品种类的增长。具体地,技术性贸易壁垒促进了工业品的进口额和进口种类增长,且对发达国家的促进效应更大;动植物卫生检疫措施抑制了农产品进口额增长,且对发展中国家的抑制效应更大,并促进了来自发展中国家的农产品进口种类增加。公共政策类NTMs对产品进口可能性的负面冲击小于贸易政策类NTMs,并且促进了进口额增长,而贸易政策类NTMs抑制了产品进口额。

At present,international trade presents a new trend of increasing tariff liberalization and non-tariff measures(NTMs).By selecting NTMs from China’s official documents and announcements,this paper matches them with China’s HS 6-digit product tariff and import data from 1992 to 2012,and empirically discusses the impact of NTMs on goods import.It is found that the implementation of NTMs in China averagely inhibits the increase in import probability and the number of importing source countries,and promotes the growth of import volume and the types of imported products.Specifically,technical trade barriers increase the import volume and types of industrial products,and have a greater promotion effect on the developed countries;sanitary and phytosanitary measures inhibit the growth of import volume of agricultural products,have a greater inhibitory effect on the developing countries,and promote the increase in the import types of agricultural products from the developing countries.Public policy NTMs exert a smaller negative effect on the possibility of products import than trade policy NTMs and promote the growth of import volume,while trade policy NTMs inhibit the import volume of the products.