青岛市西海岸新区政策有效性实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Policy Effectiveness in Qingdao West Coast New District

西海岸新区作为国家级新区,其发展现状和未来趋势均备受关注。在新区发展过程中,政府积极给予相关政策支持,推动新区稳步良性发展。本文为量化各方政策对新区发展的具体推动效果,就投资政策、财政政策和外贸政策进行实证逐步回归分析和协整检验。实证分析结果表明:一般财政预算支出和进出口总额与地方生产总值呈协整关系,财政政策和外贸政策均对新区经济发展有显著的正向推动作用,其中财政政策效果优于外贸政策。

As a state-level new district,the development status and future trend of Qingdao West Coast New District are highly concerned.In the development process of the new area,the government has actively given relevant policy support to promote the steady and benign development of the new area.In order to quantify the specific promoting effects of various policies on the development of the new area,this paper conducts stepwise regression analysis and co-integration test on investment policies,fiscal policies and foreign trade policies.The empirical analysis results show that,general fiscal budget expenditure and total import and export volume have a co-integration relationship with local GDP.Both fiscal policy and foreign trade policy play a significant positive role in promoting the economic development of West Coast New District,and the effect of fiscal policy is better than foreign trade policy.