基于改进IAHP-云模型的化工园区风险评估

Risk Assessment of Chemical Industrial Park Based on Improved IAHP-Cloud Model

为了解决化工园区风险评估过程中风险因素的复杂性与不确定性而导致评估指标值存在模糊性与主观性的不足,提出一种基于改进区间层次分析法与云模型的化工园区风险评估模型。综合区间层次分析法与集对理论以及云模型理论对化工园区进行风险评估;以沈阳化工园区进行实例分析,结果表明沈阳化工园区风险等级为Ⅲ级;该模型所得结果与区间可拓模型、可变模糊集对评价和AHP-模糊综合评价方法的评估结果基本一致,验证了该模型的有效性,为化工园区安全管理提供新思路。

In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and subjectivity of evaluation index value caused by the complexity and uncertainty of risk factors in the process of risk assessment of chemical industry park,a risk assessment model of chemical industry park based on improved interval analytic hierarchy process and cloud model was proposed.Interval analytic hierarchy process,set pair theory and cloud model theory were comprehensively used to evaluate the risk of chemical industry park.Taking a Shenyang chemical industry park as an example,case analysis was carried.The results showed that the risk level of the Shenyang chemical industry park was grade III,and was consistent with the actual situation,which verified the effectiveness of the model and can provide new ideas for the safety management of chemical industry park.