我国专业公共卫生机构人力资源分布特征及预测分析

Distribution Characteristics and Prediction Analysis of Human Resources in Professional Public Health Institutions in China

目的分析我国专业公共卫生机构人力资源地区分布情况,并预测其未来五年公共卫生人员数,为公共卫生资源配置和人才队伍建设提供参考。方法采用定基比和环比增长率、集聚度(HRAD)进行现状分析并利用ECharts实现数据可视化,运用GM(1,1)模型预测我国2020~2025年公共卫生人员数。结果2013~2019年,我国专业公共卫生机构人员增长缓慢,卫生技术人员平均增速2.40%,管理人员平均增速-3.51%。东中西部地区之间、不同省区市之间、城乡之间公共卫生人员数量均存在较大差异。从集聚度来看,公共卫生人力资源地区间分布不均衡,管理人员分布状况有待改善。预计到2025年,我国公共卫生人员数将达到90.04万人。结论亟需高度重视公共卫生人才队伍建设,不断改革和创新人才培养体系,保证资源分布的公平性,以期达到公共卫生人力资源合理利用的目标。

Objective To analyze the regional distribution of human resources in specialized public health institutions in China,predict the number of public health personnel in the next five years,and provide references for public health resources allocation and the construction of public health personnel.Methods The status was analyzed with fixed base ratio,ring growth rates and HRAD.Data visualization was achieved with ECharts.And the number of public health personnel in China for 2020~2025 was forecast by GM(1,1).Results From 2013~2019,the staffs of professional public health institutions in China grew slowly,with an average growth rate of 2.40%for health technicians,and-3.51%for managers.There had great differences in the number of public health personnel among the eastern,central and western regions,among different provinces,and between urban and rural areas.In terms of agglomeration,public health human resources were unevenly distributed among different regions,and the distribution of management personnel needs to be improved.The number of public health personnel in China was forecast to be 900,400 by 2025.Conclusion It is urgent to attach great importance to the construction of public health personnel,reform and innovate the training system,and ensure the fairness of resource allocation,so as to achieve the goal of rational utilization of human resources for public health.