基于ANP的PPP模式大型基础设施建设风险研究

Study on the Risks of Large-scale Infrastructure Construction in PPP Mode Based on Analytic Network Process

随着我国城市建设步伐逐渐加快,对大型基础设施建设的需求也越来越高,PPP模式能够很好地缓解政府财政压力,提高项目建设管理水平。考虑到PPP模式下的基础设施建设工期长、投资大、参与方多,因此对风险管理提出了更高的要求。本文通过文献整理识别出了基础设施PPP模式下的风险因素,并采用网络分析(ANP)法对风险进行分析,得到相关风险的权重。最后基于中部某市轨道交通案例提出了15个风险因素,识别出五类风险(包括政策风险、金融经济风险、建设风险、组织协调风险、运营管理风险),并对BCR指标下项目建设的风险问题进行了分析,讨论了相关指标的敏感程度,为实际工程的风险管理提供了参考意见。

As the pace of urban construction in China is gradually accelerating and the demand for large-scale infrastructure construction is increasing,the PPP mode can well alleviate the government’s financial pressure and improve the level of project construction management.Taking into account the long construction period,large investment and many participants of infrastructure construction under the PPP model,higher requirements are put forward for risk management.This paper identified the risk factors in the infrastructure PPP mode through literature review,and used the network analysis(ANP)method to analyze the risks and obtain the weights of related risks.Finally,15 risk factors were proposed based on the rail transit case of a certain city in central China,and five types of risks were identified(including policy risks,financial and economic risks,construction risks,organization and coordination risks and operation and management risks).We also analyzed the risk of project construction under the BCR indicator,discussed the sensitivity of related indicators,and provided reference opinions for the risk management of actual projects.