环境规制对产业结构升级的影响研究——以我国2005—2017年省际面板数据为例

Research on the Influence of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Structure Upgrading:Taking China’s Inter-Provincial Panel Data from 2005 to 2017 as an Example

产业结构升级是实现高质量发展的重要前提,在研究环境规制对产业结构升级影响的基础上,进一步厘清其内在传导机制,对推动我国经济体系优化升级有重要意义。以我国2005—2017年30个省份的面板数据为样本,实证检验了环境规制对产业结构升级的影响,同时利用面板门槛模型识别环境规制对产业结构升级的内在影响机制。研究发现:总体上环境规制对产业结构升级的影响呈倒"U"型,在考虑内生性因素及替换关键指标后,该结论依旧稳健;分区域来看,东部地区环境规制对产业结构升级的影响为负,而中西部地区环境规制对产业结构升级的影响为正;分规制类型来看,命令控制型环境规制和市场激励型环境规制均与产业结构升级呈倒"U"型关系,而公众参与型环境规制对产业结构升级的影响不明显。进一步研究发现,环境规制与产业结构升级之间存在显著的技术创新、金融发展以及外商直接投资单一门槛,但并不存在对外贸易门槛。文章最后基于以上结论提出改善环境规制、优化产业结构的针对性政策建议。

The upgrading of industrial structure is an important prerequisite to achieve high-quality development.On the basis of studying the impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure,it is of great significance to further clarify its internal transmission mechanism to promote the optimization and upgrading of China’s economic system.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2017,this paper empirically tests the impact of environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading,and uses the panel threshold model to identify the internal influence mechanism of environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading.The results show that,in general,the impact of environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading is an inverted “U” shape,and the conclusion is still stable after endogenous factors and key indicators are taken into account.In different regions,the environmental regulation in the eastern region has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,while the environmental regulation in the central and western regions has a positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.In terms of regulation types,both command-and-control environmental regulation and market incentive environmental regulation have an inverted “U”-shaped relationship with industrial structure upgrading,while public participation environmental regulation has no obvious influence on industrial structure upgrading.Further research finds that there are significant single thresholds for technological innovation,financial development and foreign direct investment between environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading,but there is no threshold for foreign trade.Finally,based on the above conclusions,the paper puts forward targeted policy suggestions to improve environmental regulation and optimize industrial structure.