法律诉讼、政治关联与股价崩盘风险

Lawsuits,Political Connections and Stock Price Crash Risk

股价崩盘无疑是对资本市场良性发展的严重威胁,文章以我国民营上市公司为研究对象,考察法律诉讼、政治关联如何影响股价崩盘风险,以及政治关联又如何调节法律诉讼和股价崩盘风险之间的相关关系。研究发现:法律诉讼会降低股价崩盘风险,法律诉讼强度越大,股价崩盘风险越低;与之相反,政治关联会增强股价崩盘风险,政治关联强度越大,股价崩盘风险越高;政治关联会削弱法律诉讼对股价崩盘风险的负向影响,即政治关联越强,法律诉讼降低股价崩盘风险的效应越弱。这些研究发现表明法律诉讼对股价崩盘风险有一定的抑制作用,而政治关联不但会削弱这一抑制作用并且自身还会加剧股价崩盘风险。因此,在实践中不但要强化法律对市场的监管作用,还应该重视并防范市场中政治关联活动带来的负面影响。

The stock price crash has a serious threat to the sound development of the capital market undoubtedly.Taking the private listed companies in China as its object of study,this paper investigates the impact of lawsuits and the political connection on the risk of stock price crash,and the moderating effect of the political connection on the correlativity between the lawsuits and the stock price crash risk.The results show that:the lawsuits will decrease the risk of stock price crash and the higher intensity of lawsuits,the lower risk of stock price crash;on the contrary,the political connection will increase the risk of stock price crash,the higher intensive political connection,the higher risk of stock price crash;the political connections will weaken the negative impact of lawsuits on the risk of stock price crash,that is,the more stronger political connection,the lower effect of lawsuits on the decrease of the risk of stock price crash.The findings of this paper indicate that lawsuit has a certain inhibitory effect on the risk of stock price crash,whereas the political connection not only decreases the inhibitory effect but also can intensify the risk of the stock price crash.Therefore,not only the supervision of the law to the market should be more strengthened but also the negative effect brought by the political connective activities in the market should be attached importance to and kept a look out in the practice.