南亚恐怖主义态势对中巴经济走廊建设的影响及其应对

The Trend of Terrorism in South Asia and its Impact on CPEC

“一带一路”在南亚取得重要进展,但地区恐怖主义也对“一带一路”项目建设与人员安全构成现实威胁。从近中期看,南亚呈现出的恐怖组织多、恐袭事件多、因恐致死人数多的“三多”态势将是南亚恐怖主义的常态,而域外恐怖组织渗透、印巴对立、大国博弈以及新冠疫情重大公共卫生事件等,都导致地区恐怖主义态势趋于复杂。目前,南亚恐怖主义对“一带一路”的威胁主要集中于中巴经济走廊,其中又以俾路支地区民族分裂型恐怖主义威胁最为突出,而“伊斯兰国”与俾路支民族分裂组织相勾连也导致威胁程度上升。本文认为,应对南亚恐怖主义对“一带一路”威胁需综合施策,致力于深化与南亚国家的反恐合作机制建设,加强防疫合作,破解恐怖组织“新叙事”,从发展视角加强发展合作,着力应对恐怖主义对中巴经济走廊的威胁。

BRI has made remarkable progress in South Asia,but terrorism also poses a real threat to BRI projects construction and relevant personnel safety.In the near and medium term,The number of terrorist organizations,terrorist attacks and casualties in South Asia are fairly high,and this trend will be the norm for terrorism in South Asia.The infiltration of terrorist organizations from other regions,the antagonism between India and Pakistan,the game between great powers and the pandemic of COVID-19 have all complicated the situation of regional terrorism.At present,the threat of south Asian terrorism to BRI is mainly aimed at the China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC),among which the threat of separatist terrorist in Baluchistan is the most prominent,and the collusion between ISIS and Baloch separatists also raises the level of threat.This paper argues that comprehensive measures should be taken to deal with the threat of terrorism to BRI in South Asia.It is necessary to deepen the mechanism construction of counter-terrorism cooperation with South Asian countries,strengthen epidemic prevention cooperation to unmask the new narrative of terrorist organizations,promote development cooperation from the perspective of development,and address proactively the challenge of terrorism to CPEC.