莫迪政府“指责游戏”的逻辑、策略与政治结果--以印度申请加入核供应国集团事件为例

The Logic,Strategy and Political Outcome of the“Blame Game”Played by Modi Government:A Case Study on India's Membership Application for Nuclear Suppliers Group

一国政府在面临由外交困境引发的国内政治压力时,有可能会选择以指责其他国家的方式来转移视线、推卸责任。莫迪政府于2016年申请加入核供应国集团未果后对中国的指责,就是这类现象中的一个案例。本文旨在通过对该案例的深入发掘,理解莫迪政府在面临外交困境时选择指责中国的政治逻辑、采取的话语策略及其政治结果。莫迪政府在阐述为何未能成功加入核供应国集团时,既有通过指责中国来推卸责任的需求,又有意避免激烈指责中国的姿态,但其无法阻止印媒和鹰派学者以激进的姿态批评中国。其结果是,在媒体和学者的鼓动之下,印度国内对华民族主义情绪高涨,反对派借此批评莫迪政府缺乏与中国对抗的意愿与能力,莫迪政府面临的国内政治压力不减反增。

The central government of a country may choose to blame another country under the domestic political pressure caused by predicament in diplomacy,the aim of which is blame-shifting.That the Modi Government blamed China followingthe failed membership application to Nuclear Suppliers Group in 2016 is such a case.This paper intends to understand the logic of blaming China,the discourse strategy in the blame game and its political outcome through this case.Under the domestic pressure,Modi Government needed to justify its diplomatic capacity.A strong criticism towards China goes against this objective by supporting the argument that Modi Government has limited diplomatic capacity.Therefore,when explaining why it failed to join in Nuclear Suppliers Group,Modi Government wanted to avoid being criticized by the opposition through blaming China on the one hand,and on the other hand,refrained from strong blame.However,Modi Government could not prevent the media and the hawkish in India from criticizing China radically for commercial benefits or the aim of advocating for a tough policy towards China.As a result,opinions published by the media and the hawkish motivated Indian nationalism against China,which gave the opposition an opportunity to attack Modi Government by arguing that Modi Government lacked the intention and capacity to fight against China.Consequently,the domestic political pressure on Modi Government increased.