对冲视角下的南亚地区风险与斯里兰卡外交战略

Regional Risks of South Asia in the Post-Epidemic Era and Sri Lanka's Diplomatic Strategy from a Hedging Perspective

当前,南亚地区区域权力格局正在发生变化,非传统安全挑战威胁地区安全,区域合作机制进展缓慢。地区风险的提升带来区域秩序的不确定性并形成多层级结构,激发了斯里兰卡外交战略中的对冲形态。有效控制地区风险影响下的脆弱性增加,是斯里兰卡外交战略的主要关切,也决定了其对冲行为逻辑与具体政策选择。斯里兰卡正在同时使用包括间接制衡和拒绝支配在内的“风险抵消”策略,与包括经济实用主义和约束性接触在内的“收益最大化”策略进行风险应对。地区风险为斯里兰卡的战略对冲提供了机会,其未来将呈现出更加务实与灵活的外交姿态。

At present,because of the changing power pattern,the increasing non-traditional security challenges,and the slow progress of regional cooperation mechanisms,the risks are rising significantly in South Asia.In this context,the hierarchy is forming based on the uncertainty of regional order,which incentivizes hedging of Sri Lanka.Effective control of increased vulnerability is the main concern of Sri Lanka's diplomatic strategy,and it also determines its hedging logic and specific policy choices.Sri Lanka is using the“risk-contingency options”,including indirect-balancing and dominance-denial,simultaneously with“return-maximizing options”,including economic-pragmatism and binding-engagement,to respond risks.Regional risks provide opportunities for Sri Lanka's strategic hedging,and its future will present a more pragmatic and flexible diplomatic stance.