人口年龄结构对城镇居民休闲消费潜力的影响研究

Study on Impact of Population Age Structure on Leisure Consumption Potential of Urban Residents

当前我国社会老龄化和少子化趋势明显,这对居民消费结构尤其是休闲消费潜力产生重要影响。通过构建多指标评价体系并采集1999—2017年面板数据,在对我国城镇居民休闲消费潜力进行综合测度基础上,实证研究人口年龄结构对休闲消费潜力的影响。研究认为,收入水平、生活成本、家庭资产、家庭负担、消费意愿和休闲供给是居民休闲消费潜力的主要影响因素。生命周期假说和家庭储蓄需求模型是主要微观机制,收入分配、技术进步及产业结构调整等宏观经济因素发挥中介或调节作用。实证结果显示,少儿抚养比负向影响城镇居民休闲消费潜力,然而老年抚养比则产生一定积极影响。进一步分析认为,倘若我国老龄化和少子化趋势能够持续,城镇居民休闲消费潜力将会明显提升。分区域实证结果表明,东部地区老年抚养比、西部地区少儿抚养比分别对城镇居民休闲消费潜力带来较大影响效应。

At present,the trend of younger children and aging in our society is obvious,which has an important impact on the consumption structure of residents,especially the potential of leisure consumption.By building a multi-index evaluation system and collecting panel data from 1999 to 2017,this paper comprehensively measures the leisure consumption potential of urban residents in China,and then empirically studies the impact of the change of population age structure on leisure consumption potential.The results show that:Income level,cost of living,family assets,family burden,consumption intention and leisure supply are the main influencing factors of residents’leisure consumption potential.Life cycle hypothesis and household savings demand model are the main micro-mechanism.Macroeconomic factors also play an intermediary or regulatory role.The child dependency ratio negatively affects the leisure consumption potential of urban residents,while the elderly dependency ratio has a positive impact.If the trend of aging and younger children in China can continue,the leisure consumption potential of urban residents will be further enhanced.The old-age dependency ratio in the eastern region and the child dependency ratio in the western region have great influence on the leisure consumption potential of urban residents.