谁可能延迟退休?——“弹性延迟退休”的人口学分析

A Demographic Analysis of Raising Retirement Age Flexibly

《"十四五"规划和2035年远景目标纲要》提出要实行"弹性延迟法定退休年龄",引起了社会高度关注。为了增加民众对弹性延迟退休政策的理解与支持,本文从人口学的视角,以"人年数"指标为切入点,通过因素分解分别计算了"人数"和"年数"变化对我国养老压力的影响,阐明了延迟退休的必要性;同时强调应多维度地理解"人口变化",不能仅关注人口数量减少,受教育年限和预期寿命增加带来的养老压力,还应看到这些变化也意味着我国人口综合素质的提升,具备了延迟退休的条件。此外,本文还通过对不同队列、性别及受教育程度人口"人年数"变化趋势的测算,分析不同特征人口养老压力的差异化,阐述了延迟退休"弹性实施,分类推进"的人口学依据,为政策顺利实施争取更多的理解与支持。

The 14 th Five-Year Plan and the Outline of 2035 China Long-term Development Goal propose for "flexibly raising retirement age", which has aroused great attention from the society and provoked questions and concerns among the webizens. In order to increase the public’s understanding and support for raising retirement age policy, this article takes the indicator of person-years as a starting point to estimate the impact of changes in population size and the years accordingly on the elderly support in China clarifying the necessity of raising retirement age. At the same time, it emphasize that "demographic changes" should be understood in a multi-dimensional perspective, instead of focusing on the pressures from the decrease of population size, the prolong education and the increase of life expectancy, because they also mean that the overall population quality has been improved dramatically and it is feasible to postpone retirement age. In addition, the changing pension pressures is estimated by cohort, gender and education level of the population change to expound the demographic basis of postponing retirement by an the approach of flexible implementation and classified advancement.