中国晚婚问题研究——来自亲友网络视角的解释

Research on late marriage in China:An Explanation from the Perspective of Relatives and Friends Network

本文在婚姻市场理论的框架下,研究了亲友网络对初婚年龄的影响,从亲友网络的视角解释了当今社会普遍存在的晚婚现象。基于2010年中国家庭追踪调查数据,本文采用Cox半参数风险模型和线性模型对此进行了实证分析,并使用"家庭成分"虚拟变量作为工具变量,得到了较为稳健的结论。结果显示:总体上,亲友网络可以显著缩短初婚年龄,但是对"70后"和"60后"的缩短作用更大,对"80后"的影响并不显著,这种缩短作用也只显著存在于低受教育群体中,因此,亲友网络在社会变迁中的功能丧失可能是导致年轻人结婚晚于以往的一个重要原因;同时,本文还发现亲友网络可以调节初婚年龄整体结构,延长早婚组的初婚年龄,并且缩短晚婚组的初婚年龄。

In the framework of marriage market theory, this paper studies the influence of relatives and friends network on the age of first marriage, and explains the common phenomenon of late marriage in today’s society from the perspective of relatives and friends network. The data of China’s household tracking survey in 2010 is analyzed by Cox semi-parametric risk model and linear model, and the "family composition" dummy variable is taken as the instrumental variable to get a more robust conclusion. The results show that: in general, family and friend network can significantly shorten the age of first marriage, but the shortening effect of family and friend network on the "post-70 s" and "post-60 s" is greater, and that on the "post-80 s" is not significant while such shortening effect only exists in the low educated groups. The functional loss of the network of relatives and friends in the social changes may be an important reason indirectly leading to the late marriage of young people. In addition, the network of relatives and friends can adjust the age structure of first marriage, extend the age of first marriage in early marriage group, and shorten the age of first marriage in late marriage group.