基于春节因素的网络招聘最佳区段选择的季节调整

Seasonal Adjustment of the Optimal Time Segment Selection for Online Recruitment Based on Spring Festival Factors

针对我国部分网络招聘春节效应显著以及春节影响时段确定方法数字性特征不足的问题,文章基于X-13ARIMA-SEATS模型中Genhol程序的思想,采用组合循环遍历方法寻找春节效应显著性统计量和最优模型选择统计量,循环似穷尽性确定网络招聘的最佳影响时间区段,进行符合我国移动假日特点的网络招聘时间序列季节调整。以我国蓝领技能人才网络招聘需求序列为实证的研究结论显示,其春节前后的最佳招聘需求序列具有显著影响的时间区段为节前5天、节中7天和节后19天,节前和节后有显著的正向影响,节中表现为显著的负向影响,调整后的网络招聘曲线季节性效应不显著。

In view of the significant Spring Festival effect and the insufficient digital characteristics of the method to determine the influence period of Spring Festival in some online recruitments in China,this paper is based on the idea of Genhol procedure in X-13 ARIMA-SEATS model and uses the combined loop traversal method to find the significance statistics and the optimal model selection statistics of Spring Festival effect,and circular quasi-exhaustion to determine the optimal influencing time segment of online recruitment,making the seasonal adjustment of online recruitment time series which is in accordance with the characteristics of mobile holidays in China.The conclusion of an empirical research based on the online recruitment demand series of blue-collar skilled personnel in China shows that the best recruitment demand time sequence around the Spring Festival has a significant impact on the time segment of 5 days before,7 days during and 19 days after the Spring Festival,with significant positive effects before and after the festival,and significant negative effects during the festival.The seasonal effect of the adjusted online recruitment curve is not significant.