全球地缘经济合作的空间模式与空间机理——基于商品贸易规模的实证研究

The Spatial Model and Spatial Mechanism of the Global Geo-economic Cooperation:An Empirical Research Based on the Scale of Commodity Trade

运用1996—2016年全球各国商品贸易规模的面板数据,借助探索性空间数据分析方法揭示全球地缘经济合作的空间模式,构建空间误差混合回归模型进一步解释全球地缘经济合作的空间机理,得出如下结论:(1)全球地缘经济合作存在空间正相关,呈现出"核心-边缘"的空间模式,表现为板块化和多极化的发展趋势;(2)全球地缘经济合作的空间依赖性受到生产要素流动与国际分工的传导与驱动,国家规模是地缘经济合作的基础因素,生产要素禀赋是地缘经济合作的内生动力,创新是地缘经济合作的引擎,政治脆弱性是地缘经济合作的壁垒,地缘经济合作的空间依赖性在创新要素跨国流动影响下趋于弱化;(3)中国需在空间上遵循"邻近国家-欧亚区域-全球范围"的三环递进原则,有层次地布局地缘经济资源,在内容上发挥规模优势和要素禀赋优势,强化科技创新国际竞争力,有差异地制定地缘经济政策,在策略上激发地缘经济对地缘政治的渗透效应,最大化地缘经济杠杆作用。

Using the global commodity trade data from 1996 to 2016,this study employed exploratory spatial data analysis to reveal the spatial model of the global geo-economic cooperation,and further explained the spatial mechanism of the global geo-economic cooperation by constructing the SARAR model.Results are:Firstly,the global geo-economic cooperation has showed positive spatial correlation and formed a core-periphery pattern,showing the trend of multi-polarization and modularization.Secondly,the spatial dependency of the global geo-economic cooperation has been transmitted and driven by the flow of production factors and the international division of labor.The scale of nation has acted as the foundation,the endowment of the production factors as the endogenous incentive,innovation as the engine,and the political fragility as the important barrier of the geo-economic cooperation.The transnational flow of innovative factors has weakened the spatial dependency of the geo-economic cooperation.Thirdly,China should progressively distribute the geo-economic resources,following the three-ring principle of‘neighboring countries-Eurasian region-whole world’.China should take advantage of its scale and factor endowment,enhance its international competitiveness in scientific and technological innovation,and formulate the geo-economic policies in the light of different countries.Strategically,China should maximize the geo-economic leverage effect by stimulating the penetration of geo-economy into geo-politics.