基于时序数据与灰色理论的桥梁技术状况评定研究

Research on Bridge Technical Condition Evaluation Based on Time Series Data and Grey Theory

为了开展合理的桥梁技术状况评定,提出一种基于时序数据与灰色理论的桥梁技术状况评定方法。该方法利用自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)对离散的检测资料进行处理后得到时间序列数据,后结合灰色关联分析法与聚类评定法获取各评定指标权重与灰度综合聚类函数值,基于综合传统检测内容与运营条件构建了桥梁评价体系,通过对1座实桥开展了技术状况评定的工程应用研究。结果表明,利用该方法可实现桥梁的技术状况评定,该评价体系影响因素全面且结果量化明确,克服了传统评定方法中评定指标的局限性,为桥梁技术状况评定提供一种新的研究思路。

In order to carry out a reasonable assessment of the technical condition of the bridge,a method of assessing the technical condition of the bridge based on time series data and grey theory is proposed.This method uses the autoregressive moving average model(ARMA)to process the discrete detection data to obtain time series data,and then combines the gray correlation analysis method and the clustering evaluation method to obtain the weight of each evaluation index and the gray comprehensive clustering function value.A bridge evaluation system was constructed based on comprehensive traditional inspection content and operating conditions.And the engineering application research of the technical condition evaluation of a real bridge was carried out.The results show that this method can be used to evaluate the technical condition of the bridge.The evaluation system has comprehensive influencing factors and clear results,which overcomes the limitations of the traditional assessment methods and provides a new research idea for the assessment of the technical condition of the bridge.