跨国电信网络诈骗犯罪聚集地空间迁移分析——大湄公河流域样本定性研究

Analysis on the Spatial Migration of the Gathering Place of Transnational Telecommunication Network Fraud——Qualitative Research of Samples from the Greater Mekong River Basin

近年来,缅北成为东南亚地区电信网络诈骗话务窝点的聚集地。受政治局势演变、国家政策变动、犯罪成本推高、中缅执法“对峙”局面形成等多重因素的影响,缅北话务窝点可能在5~10年内发生犯罪迁移,妙瓦底成为新的电信网络诈骗犯罪热点区域。研究以犯罪聚集地的空间迁移为假设,通过开源信息收集、挖掘、比对缅北与妙瓦底从事电诈活动的犯罪条件和机会,依据缅甸诈骗话务窝点的案件数据进行地理信息测量和可视化分析,旨在阐述城市空间区域内抑制犯罪力量的缺失和犯罪条件的具备导致新的犯罪热点区域形成的可能性。并在“澜湄协议”安全合作机制框架下研提遏制缅北、妙瓦底诈骗犯罪活动的对策建议。

It is known that northern Myanmar has become a gathering place of telecommunication(telecom)network fraud in Southeast Asia recently.However,due to the influence of multiple factors,such as evolution of political situation,changes of national policy,cost increasing of crime,and the confrontation formation in Chinese-Myanmar law enforcement,the telephone dens in northern Myanmar probably move out in five to ten years,and Myawaddy may become the new hot spots of telecom network fraud crimes.Taking the spatial migration of crime gathering place as hypothesis,this study collected,investigated and compared the criminal conditions and opportunities of telecom fraud in northern Myanmar and Myawaddy through open-source information,carried out geographic information measurement and visual analysis based on case data of Myanmar's telecom fraud dens,aiming to illustrate the possibility of the formation of new crime hot spots due to the lack of crime restraining forces in urban space and the availability of crime conditions.In addition,strategies on suppressing Fraud and criminal activities of northern Myanmar and Myawaddy were proposed under the framework of the security cooperation of the Lancang-Mekong Agreement.