人口结构对经济增长的影响——基于时间序列的实证检验

The Impact of Population Structure on Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis Based on Time Series Data

2010年以来,我国人口虽然持续增加,但是劳动力不足的问题已经开始显现,由过去的劳动力供给过剩开始走向不足,人口红利逐渐消失,人口老龄化问题日益突出。为促进经济持续发展,需要以人口经济学理论对人口结构相关问题进行新的探索。选取我国2005—2019年的时间序列数据分析人口结构对经济增长的影响。为保持我国经济长期稳定持续发展,需要及早调整生育政策、完善养老服务体系及医疗保险制度,发展多元产业缓解因老龄化而抑制的经济增长问题。

Although my country’s population has continued to increase since 2010,the problem of labor shortage has begun to emerge.From the past oversupply of labor to insufficiency,the demographic dividend has gradually disappeared,and the problem of population aging has become increasingly prominent.In order to promote sustained economic growth and development,population is needed.Economic theories make new explorations on issues related to population structure.Select my country’s time series data from 2005 to 2019 to analyze the impact of population structure on economic growth.In order to maintain the long-term stable and sustainable development of my country’s economy,it is necessary to adjust the birth policy as soon as possible,improve the old-age service system and medical insurance system,and develop diversified industries to alleviate the economic growth restrained by aging.