中国碳排放总量与强度的省际差异与因素分解

Inter-Provincial Diversity and Factor Decomposition of the Totality and Intensity of Carbon Emissions in China

在碳排放总量和强度双重约束与任务分摊下,对各省份的碳排放总量与强度进行有效测算和驱动因素分解有助于地区和国家实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的目标愿景。因此,基于2000—2018年中国30个省份的数据,采用表面能源消费量估算法对各省市(市、区)的碳排放总量与碳排放强度进行了测算,从时间与空间两个维度分析了碳排放总量与碳排放强度的时空动态演变趋势,并且基于LMDI模型对中国碳排放总量增长的驱动因素进行了分解。研究结果显示:2018年,中国的碳排放总量为1257001.95万t,碳排放强度为1.05 t/千美元。2000—2018年,中国碳排放量均值排名前三位的是山东省、河北省和山西省,排名末三位的是北京市、海南省和青海省;碳排放强度均值排名前三位的是山西省、贵州省和宁夏回族自治区;排名末三位的是广东省、海南省和福建省。技术效应和结构效应是中国实现碳减排的最主要因素,而经济增长与人口增长则会导致碳排放总量增加。

Under the dual constraints of the task allocation of the totality and intensity of carbon emissions,an effective measurement of the totality and intensity of carbon emissions in provinces and cities,along with the decomposition of driving factors,helps to achieve the regional and national goal of“carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”.Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018,the surface energy consumption estimation method is used for the measurement of the total carbon emissions and intensity of provinces and cities(cities and districts),followed by an analysis of the temporal and spatial dynamic evolution trend of total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity,with the driving factors of China’s carbon emission growth totality decomposed based on LMDI model.The research results show that China’s total carbon emissions in 2018 were 12570019500 tons,with a carbon intensity of 1.05 tons per thousand US dollars.From 2000 to 2018,Shandong,Hebei and Shanxi were three provinces ranking the top three in average carbon emissions,while Beijing,Hainan and Qinghai ranked the bottom three.The top three regions in the average carbon emission intensity are Shanxi,Guizhou and Ningxia,while the bottom three were Guangdong,Hainan and Fujian.Technological and structural effects are the most important factors for carbon emission reduction in China,while economic growth and population growth will lead to an increase in the totality of carbon emissions.