基于脱钩弹性的珠三角城市群碳达峰分析

Analysis of Carbon Emissions Peak in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration Based on Decoupling Elasticity

基于《广东省市县(区)温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》中的碳排放核算方法,在测度珠三角城市群9个城市2010—2019年能耗CO_(2)排放量的基础上,采用GDP和CO_(2)排放增长的“脱钩”弹性,得到各市2011—2019年的脱钩系数和状态,并结合最近10 a的CO_(2)排放和脱钩指数提出了珠三角城市群的碳达峰判别方法,最后对这9个城市的碳达峰情况进行了判断。结果表明:CO_(2)排放总量方面,广州、深圳、中山3市整体上呈现下降趋势,而佛山、惠州、东莞、珠海、江门、肇庆6市却一直呈现上升之势;CO_(2)排放强度方面,深圳基本上最低,其次是珠海和广州,中山、东莞和江门3市大致呈一直下降之势,佛山、惠州、肇庆3市大致呈现先降后升的波动变化;脱钩状态方面,中山呈强脱钩状态,惠州、珠海、肇庆3市均呈扩张性连接状态,广州、深圳、佛山、东莞、江门5市却呈弱脱钩状态;碳达峰情况方面,在当前产业结构和经济环境协调发展的情况下,中山、广州、深圳、东莞、江门5个城市已处于碳达峰状态,而佛山、惠州、珠海、肇庆4市尚未达峰。

By adopting the accounting method of CO_(2) emissions in Guidelines for the Preparation of Greenhouse Gas Inventories(Trial Version)in Cities and Counties(Districts)Issued by Guangdong Province,and based on the measurement results of the energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions in 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration from 2010 to 2019,the decoupling coefficient and status of individual city from 2011 to 2019 can be obtained by using the“decoupling”elasticity of GDP and CO_(2) emission growth.Combined with the CO_(2) emissions and decoupling indices in recent 10 years,a discrimination method has been proposed of CO_(2) emissions peak of Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration,followed by an ultimate evaluation of the emissions peak situation in the nine cities.The results show that,in terms of total CO_(2) emissions,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhongshan show a downward trend on a whole,while Foshan,Huizhou,Dongguan,Zhuhai,Jiangmen,Zhaoqing keep showing an upward trend;in terms of CO_(2) emissions intensity,Shenzhen is basically the lowest,to be followed by Zhuhai and Guangzhou;Zhongshan,Dongguan and Jiangmen are generally in a declining trend,Foshan,Huizhou,Zhaoqing are characterized with a fluctuation of declining then rising volatility.In terms of decoupling situation,Zhongshan shows a strong decoupling trend;Huizhou,Zhuhai,Zhaoqing are expansively connected;while Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Foshan,Dongguan,Jiangmen are weakly decoupled.In terms of CO_(2) emissions peak,accompanied by the current coordinated development of industrial structure and economic environment,Zhongshan,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Dongguan,Jiangmen have been in the peak state,while Foshan,Huizhou,Zhuhai,Zhaoqing have not yet reached the peak.