宁夏彭阳县肉牛布鲁氏菌病空间分析

Spatial Analysis on Brucellosis in Beef Cattle in Pengyang County of Ningxia

为描述宁夏彭阳县肉牛布鲁氏菌病场户表观流行率空间分布模式,探究肉牛布鲁氏菌病高风险区域及其影响因素,基于彭阳县2021年3月开展的肉牛布鲁氏菌病横断面调查结果,应用地理信息系统(ArcGIS)软件进行全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关分析,使用SaTscan软件分析肉牛布鲁氏菌病高风险区域和空间聚集性,用GeoDetector探测其空间分布异质性影响因素。结果显示:在全局自相关分析中,全局莫兰指数(Global Moran's I)为正值(P<0.001),说明彭阳县不同感染程度的肉牛养殖场户呈现了明显的聚类特征;在局部自相关分析中,高值(H-H)聚集区主要集中在白阳镇、红河镇和冯庄乡,热点分析也显示出较为一致的结果;在空间聚集性分析中,彭阳县肉牛布病存在3个高风险地理聚集区(P<0.05),分别位于白阳镇、红河镇和冯庄乡;GeoDetector探测显示,乡镇肉牛存栏量、养牛场户离主要交通公路距离和周围养牛场户数影响肉牛布鲁氏菌病的空间分布异质性。结果表明,彭阳县肉牛布鲁氏菌病存在不同程度的聚集性,主要聚集在白阳镇、红河镇和冯庄乡。结果提示,应采取相应措施加大对较高风险区域乡镇的肉牛布鲁氏菌病控制,同时要加强对其他乡镇的肉牛布鲁氏菌病监测。

In order to describe the spatial distribution pattern of apparent prevalence of brucellosis in beef cattle farms in Pengyang County of Ningxia,and to identify the areas with high risk and the infl uence factors,based on the results of a cross-sectional investigation on the disease conducted in the county in March 2021,the global and local indicators of spatial autocorrelations were analyzed by the geographic information system(ArcGIS),the areas with high risk and spatial aggregation of brucellosis in beef cattle were analyzed by the SaTscan software,then the factors infl uencing spatial stratifi ed heterogeneity were identifi ed by GeoDetector.The results showed that,for the global autocorrelation analysis,the Global Moran's I was positive(P<0.001),which indicated that obvious clustering characteristics appeared in the infected farms with different infection levels;for the local autocorrelation analysis,high-high(H-H)aggregations were mainly observed in Baiyang,Honghe and Fengzhuang townships,and the results by Getis-Ord Gi were relatively consistent;for the spatial aggregation analysis,the disease mainly gathered in three geographical regions at high risk(P<0.05)including Baiyang,Honghe and Fengzhuang townships;it was shown that,by GeoDetector,the spatial stratifi ed heterogeneity of the disease was affected by the stock of beef cattle in townships,the distance between farms and main roads as well as the number of surrounding cattle farms.It was concluded that the disease mainly aggregated in Baiyang,Honghe and Fengzhuang townships to different extent,which should be further controlled in the regions at high risk through corresponding measures and monitored in other regions.