库水变动下水库滑坡变形预测研究

Research on Prediction of Landslide Deformation in Reservoir Area under Reservoir Water Fluctuation

滑坡发生与发展受控于滑坡内动力物质系统和外动力激励系统。对于库水变动影响下的水库滑坡来说,地下水作用效应则是滑坡内动力物质系统与外动力激励系统相互作用的枢纽,为此可通过诱发因素与变形之间的响应关系来构建滑坡的变形预测模型。基于上述思路,以三峡库区巴东县李家湾滑坡为研究对象,以时效变形和库水位变形、降雨量变形为影响因子构建滑坡变形预测模型,并采用逐步回归分析的方法,对李家湾滑坡在不同诱发因素作用下的空间点进行了变形预测分析。研究成果能为三峡库区水库型滑坡防灾减灾提供理论指导与帮助。

The occurrence and development of landslide are controlled by the internal dynamic material system and external dynamic excitation system.For the reservoir landslide under the influence of reservoir water fluctuation,the effect of groundwater action is the hinge of the interaction between the internal dynamic material system and the external dynamic excitation system of the landslide.Therefore,the deformation prediction model of the landslide can be constructed by the response relationship between the induced factors and deformation.Based on the above ideas,taking Lijiawan landslide in Badong county of The Three Gorges Reservoir Area as the research object,the landslide deformation prediction model is constructed by taking time-dependent deformation,reservoir water level deformation and rainfall deformation as influence factors.By the method of stepwise regression analysis,the deformation prediction of Lijiawan landslide under different inducing factors is carried out.The research results can provide theoretical guidance and help for the prevention and mitigation of reservoir type landslide in The Three Gorges Reservoir Area.