碳中和背景下中俄欧能源合作的发展变迁与展望

Development and Prospects of China-Russia-Europe Energy Cooperation in the Context of Carbon Neutrality

包括中国在内超过130个国家已明确宣布碳中和目标。碳中和并不意味着短时间内油气资源的全面退出,尤其是对油气进口高度依赖的国家,反而更应重视碳中和前对油气进口多元化与安全性的把控。鉴于能源安全供给形势的日益严峻和欧亚大陆广泛多元的能源互补潜力,中国、俄罗斯与欧盟迎来了三方能源合作向更深更广领域探索的可能性。中俄欧能源合作早已存在,经历了从双边到多边,从单纯的油气贸易到电网等跨境基础设施建设,合作重心从西向东的变迁发展历程,在碳中和压力的催化下正在向多维多边的合作前景迈进。但中俄欧能源合作仍面临基础设施遭到破坏、网络风险、美国竭力反对干扰中俄欧能源合作、能源合作跨国机制或平台缺失等挑战。中国应重视目前阻碍欧亚大陆能源合作的挑战,尽力通过更具统一规范和规则的合作机制,保障能源合作向"硬件"安全与"软件"协调的方向深入发展。一方面,促进跨地区对话,增强互信,主动塑造并管理欧亚大陆能源的联通性。另一方面,中俄欧能源合作始终缺乏有效的危机管理机制,中国需要加强能源危机管理能力,弥补治理真空。

More than 130 countries,including China,have clearly announced their carbon neutrality targets.Carbon neutrality does not mean the complete withdrawal of oil and gas resources in a short time.Especially for countries highly dependent on oil and gas imports,more attention should be paid to the control over the diversification and security of oil and gas imports prior to the carbon neutrality.In view of the increasingly severe situation of secure energy supply and the extensive and diversified energy complementarity potential of Eurasia,China,Russia and the EU welcomed the possibility of exploring deeper and wider areas of tripartite energy cooperation.China-Russia-Europe energy cooperation has long existed.It has gone through a transition from bilateral to multilateral and from pure oil and gas trade to cross-border infrastructure construction such as power grid,and the focus of cooperation has shifted from west to east.Driven by the pressure of carbon neutrality,China-Russia-Europe energy cooperation is moving towards multi-dimensional and multilateral co-operation.However,China-Russia-Europe energy cooperation still faces challenges such as damaged infrastruc-ture,cyber risks,the US′ s strong opposition and interference with China-Russia-Europe energy cooperation,and the absence of transnational mechanisms or platforms for energy cooperation.China should pay attention to the current challenges hindering energy cooperation in Eurasia,and try its best to ensure the in-depth development of energy cooperation in the direction of hardware security and software coordination through a coop-eration mechanism with more unified norms and rules.On the one hand,it is important to promote trans-regional dialogue,enhance mutual trust and take the initiative to shape and manage the energy connectivity in Eurasia.On the other hand,due to the lack of effective crisis management mechanism in China-Russia-Europe energy cooperation,China needs to strengthen its energy crisis management capabilities to make up the governance vacuum.