中国电力行业CO_(2)减排技术及成本研究

RESEARCH ON CARBON DIOXIDE ABATEMENT TECHNOLOGIES AND COST IN CHINA’S POWER INDUSTRY

在"双碳"目标提出的背景下,电力行业作为首要的碳排放行业,将承担起更大的减排份额及减排责任。筛选了13种电力行业的关键减排技术,评估并比较了各减排技术在碳达峰年前后的减排潜力及减排成本的变化趋势,以每5年为1个时间节点,对边际碳减排成本曲线进行分析,最终从技术选择的角度确定电力行业情景年的最优减排成本方案。结果表明:筛选的13种电力行业技术在2020,2025,2030,2035年的总碳减排潜力为4.7亿,7.0亿,5.0亿,5.4亿t,对应平均碳减排成本为8,67,242,464元/t。其中,2020年技术的边际减排成本为-295~376元/t。从技术类型而言,各项减排技术在边际减排成本曲线(MACC)上表现出特异性,相较于系统灵活性提升和技术升级改造,电源结构优化具有更高的碳减排潜力及更低的碳减排成本。研究为电力行业在选择最优减排技术方案时提供了成本角度的数据参考。

Under the background of the proposed Double Carbon goal,the power industry,as the primary carbon emission industry,will assume a greater share and responsibility of emission reduction. The paper selected 13 key low-carbon technology of power industry to evaluate and compare the trends of carbon abatement potential and corresponding cost during the process of peaking carbondioxide emissions. Taking every 5 years as a period,the marginal abatement cost curve( MACC) was analyzed,and the technology-based and cost-optimal carbon abatement plan for power industry in each selected year was offered. The results showed that the total carbon abatement potential of the 13 selected technologies in 2020,2025,2030 and 2035 were470 million,700 million,500 million and 540 million tons,respectively. The corresponding average carbon abatement cost were 8,67,242,464 yuan/ton in each year. While,the marginal abatement cost of selected technologies in 2020 ranged from-295 yuan/ton to 376 yuan/ton. In terms of technology types,every technology showed specificity on the MACC. Compared with system flexibility and technology upgrading,power structure optimization had higher carbon abatement potential and lower carbon abatement cost. This paper can provide data support to select the low-carbon technology-based and cost-optimal plan in the power industry.