中国道路交通部门减排技术及成本研究

ANALYSIS OF CARBON EMISSIONS ABATEMENT TECHNOLOGY AND COST IN ROAD TRANSPORT SECTOR OF CHINA

道路交通作为交通部门碳排放的重要来源,将在实现"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的过程中承担重任。碳减排技术成本的研究有利于平衡道路交通机动化发展和"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的实现,是实现道路交通可持续发展的重要措施。为此,基于乘用车、商用客车、轻型商用货车和重型商用货车等车型,结合发动机技术、变速器技术、辅助系统技术和整车技术和新能源车应用等16种关键节能减排技术的减排潜力和成本,建立了2020—2035年我国道路交通碳排放的边际减排成本(MAC)曲线,评估了通过推广车辆节能技术和新能源车等措施来实现减排目标的累积成本。主要得到以下结论:1)相同的车辆节能减排技术,应用在重型商用货车的单位减排成本远小于其他车型,新能源车在乘用车的应用具有很大的减排潜力,但是与其他车型相比并不具有成本优势。2)燃料电池新能源车的单位减排成本远高于纯电动和插电混合动力新能源车,未来需降低燃料电池的生产成本以及氢气的制备、储存和运输成本。3)2020—2035年的减排总成本曲线显示总减排成本先增加后下降的趋势,这表明随着节能减排技术的合理推广,该部门减排阻力在不断下降。

As an important source of carbon emissions in the transportation sector, road transportation will take on important responsibilities in the process of achieving the goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality. Research on the cost of carbon emission reduction technologies is conducive to balancing the development of road traffic motorization and the realization of this goal, which is an important measure to realize the sustainable development of road transport. This research divided vehicles into passenger cars, commercial buses, light commercial trucks and heavy commercial trucks, and then analyzed reduction potential and cost of the engine technology, transmission technology, auxiliary system technology, vehicle technology and new energy vehicle applications on these vehicles, and finally established the MAC curve of my country’s road transport carbon emissions from 2020 to 2035. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the same vehicle energy saving and emission reduction technology had the lowest unit carbon emissions abatement cost when applied to heavy commercial truck. Meanwhile, the application of new energy vehicles in passenger cars had great potential for emission reduction, but it did not occupy a cost advantage compared with other models. 2)the unit carbon emissions abatement cost of fuel cell new energy vehicles was much higher than that of pure electric and plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles. In the future, it was necessary to reduce the production cost of fuel cells and the cost of hydrogen preparation, storage and transportation. 3) the total carbon emissions abatement costs first increased and then decreased, which indicated that with the reasonable promotion of energy-saving emission reduction technologies, the resistance to emission reduction in this sector was declining.