中国县域经济发展对碳排放的影响研究

Study on the Impact of County Economic Development on Carbon Emission in China

在"碳达峰、碳中和"的国家战略背景下,控制碳排放成为各地发展经济的前提条件。县域是中国社会经济发展的基础单元,统筹县域经济发展和碳排放的关系对中国实现控碳战略具有重要意义。基于中国172个县级单元的经济发展和碳排放数据,采用线性回归模型分析法,对中国县域经济发展对碳排放的影响进行了分析。研究发现:一、县域碳排放总量与经济总量和工业化水平高度正相关,经济发展水平的提高有助于提升碳生产力,降低碳排放强度;二、县域内工业的集聚有助于降低碳排放强度,但服务业的聚集将会导致县域碳排放水平的上升。基于此,建议在县级国土空间规划中,应加强县域工业用地的集中布局,确保基本公共服务设施的均等化。

It has become a global consensus that continued greenhouse gas emissions have had a major impact on the global climate.China’s fossil energy-based energy structure has brought greater pressure to reduce emissions.In the context of the recently proposed “carbon peak and carbon neutral” national strategy,the control of carbon emissions has become a prerequisite for economic development across the country.Counties are the basic unit of China’s social and economic development.Coordinating the relationship between county economic development and carbon emissions is of great significance to China’s carbon control strategy.Existing research on county-level low-carbon development mainly includes research on the spatial pattern evolution of carbon emissions,low-carbon development paths,industrial structure optimization,and low-carbon land use planning.The research and discussion on carbon control mechanisms based on quantitative analysis methods are relatively shallow.China’s territorial and spatial planning system is gradually being established.The management and control of all factors in the entire region will help improve China’s carbon emission governance capabilities.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to study the impact mechanism of industrial carbon emissions at the county level,which can support the formulation of low-carbon governance strategies.Using model analysis,based on the economic development and carbon emissions data of 172 county-level units in China,the impact of economic development in China’s counties on carbon emissions is analyzed.Dividing all the research samples into three categories based on the comprehensive economic development level,it can be found that the economic development level of most counties in China is relatively low at present,and they show significant regional differentiation and huge gaps between different development levels.By analyzing the spatial characteristics of county economic development,most counties have formed a corporate layout model with central urban areas as a single core,but there are significant differences in corporate layout models in different regions and counties with different development levels.In terms of carbon emissions,the research samples showed that the level of carbon emissions increased simultaneously with the increase in the scale and density of economic activities,while the intensity of carbon emissions gradually decreased.In addition,counties with a medium level of economic development have the largest scale in terms of total carbon emissions indicators,while counties with a low level of economic development have the largest scale in terms of carbon emission intensity indicators,which reflects counties at different stages of economic development.There are different main contradictions.It’s found that:(1) The total amount of carbon emissions is highly positively correlated with the overall economic level,especially the degree of industrialization.From the perspective of total carbon emissions,the secondary industry has played the most important positive role in promoting the total carbon emissions of county industries.As the economy grows,the total carbon emissions will inevitably maintain a growth trend,which is also in line with the current stage and mode of county economic development.Therefore,promoting the technological progress of industrial enterprises is still the key to county carbon control.On the other hand,the improvement of county economic development level can significantly reduce carbon emission intensity.At present,with the continuous growth of China’s county economy,the intensity of carbon emissions has shown a downward trend.On the one hand,this phenomenon shows that a larger county economy is conducive to reducing the intensity of carbon emissions.On the other hand,it also shows that there has been a “relative decoupling” between economic aggregates and carbon emissions in the development of China’s county economy.At the same time,it should be noted that the increase in industrial output value has not brought about a significant reduction in carbon emission intensity,which means that the current industrialization of counties still has obvious characteristics of extensive growth.The service industry is also often considered to be able to control carbon emission intensity.However,at the county level,due to the lack of high-end productive service industries such as finance,information,and IT in the service industry,the control effect on carbon emission intensity has not been achieved.(2) The spatial agglomeration of industrial enterprises can help reduce the intensity of carbon emissions,and the more industrial enterprises gathered in a county,the more beneficial it is to control the total carbon emissions.Therefore,the industrial layout planning under the low-carbon concept should insist on centralizing the layout of industries in industrial parks to increase the economies of scale.But on the other hand,the concentration of service industries will lead to an increase in carbon emissions.Analysis of the reason for this phenomenon is that the more concentrated service industries at the county level have brought higher travel intensity for urban and rural residents.Therefore,the layout of county service facilities should take different levels of living circles as the basic units,and build a multi-level and networked service facility system across the region to reduce the intensity of carbon emissions.Based on this,it is recommended that in the county-level land and space planning,the centralized layout of industrial land at the county level should be strengthened,while ensuring the equalization of basic public service facilities.