中国对世界经济增长的贡献:1980-2020--新发展格局的增长史回顾与全球审视

China’s Contribution to the World Economic Growth:1980-2020--A Review of the Growth History of the New Development Pattern and a Global Survey

1980年以来,中国和世界经济增速的趋势性变化是经济周期下边界的持续下移。2010年以来的中国GDP增速10年均值下降30%,世界GDP名义增速下降70%、不变价美元增速下降约30%。欧盟和美国在2000年前开始增长减速,中国增长减速最晚,减速幅度小于欧盟、高于美国。中国对世界经济增长贡献不断增加,未受到2010年以后中国增长减速影响。以现价美元衡量的中国与世界人均GDP比值从1980的7.64%增至2020年的96.11%,以不变价美元衡量的比值也从1980年的5.53%增至2020年的79.55%,2020年以购买力平价衡量的比值超过100%。40年来中国与美国经济增速的差距没有显著收敛,而是处于长期上升通道。2010—2020年的中美增速差距小于长期差距,但2020年中美增速差距超过10年均值。

Since 1980,the trend change of economic growth in China and the world has been the con⁃tinuous downward movement of the lower boundary of the economic cycle.China’s increasing contri⁃bution to world economic growth has not been affected by China’s growth slowdown after 2010.The ra⁃tio of China’s per capita GDP to the world’s per capita GDP measured in current US dollars in⁃creased from 7.64%in 1980 to 96.11%in 2020.In 2020,the ratio measured at purchasing power pari⁃ty will exceed 100%.Over the past 40 years,the gap in economic growth between China and the Unit⁃ed States has not significantly declined,but is in a long-term upward channel.The growth gap be⁃tween China and the United States from 2010 to 2020 is smaller than the long-term gap,but the growth gap between China and the United States in 2020 exceeds the 10-year average.