基于灰色理论的变压器故障油中溶解气体预测

Forecast for Dissolved Gas in Transformer Fault Oil Based on Grey Theory

油浸式变压器发生故障时,绝缘油中溶解气类型和含量均会产生变化,通过分析绝缘油因受热分解所产生多种烃类气体的含量,可以有效预测变压器内部的潜伏性故障。本文针对变压器绝缘油中故障气体发展趋势的预测问题,引入灰色理论,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,基于MATLAB仿真实验结果验证了该方法的有效性。

When oil-immersed transformer breaks down, the type and content of dissolved gas in insulating oil will change. By analyzing the content of various hydrocarbon gases produced by thermal decomposition of insulating oil, the potential faults in transformer can be effectively predicted. In this paper, the grey theory is introduced to predict the development trend of fault gas in transformer insulating oil, and the Grey Prediction GM(1,1) model is established. The simulation results based on MATLAB verify the effectiveness of the method.