长江经济带旅游产业与生态环境交互胁迫关系验证及协调效应研究

Study on the Verification and Coordination Effect of the Interactive Stress of Tourism Industry and Ecological Environment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

探究旅游产业与生态环境协调发展问题对破解长江经济带旅游业转型升级瓶颈制约和开创生态文明建设新局面至关重要。在构建系统发展状态评价指标体系的基础上,基于交互胁迫模型验证旅游产业与生态环境系统之间存在的交互胁迫关系,进而运用耦合协调模型、空间引力模型等方法对长江经济带1998年以来两系统协调发展的动态演进特征及空间联系结构进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)长江经济带旅游产业和生态环境两大系统的评价值均呈现出增长趋势,区域间非均衡性逐渐减弱;(2)长江经济带旅游产业与生态环境之间具有交互胁迫关系,演变轨迹符合多个"S"型曲线组合的节律性发展特征;(3)长江经济带复合系统协调发展阶段大致经历了轻度失调(1998~2006年)—濒临失调(2007~2015年)—勉强协调(2016~2017年)的演变历程,耦合协调类型由旅游经济滞后型逐渐转变为系统均衡发展型;(4)区域耦合协调度空间联系格局渐趋紧密,联系势能稳步提升,整体呈"东部突出-中部隆起-西部塌陷"的阶梯式递减格局,三大分区内部也表现出显著的非均衡性特征。

Exploring the coordinated development of the tourism industry and the eco-environment is very crucial to break the bottleneck of the transformation and upgrading of the tourism industry and initiate the new situation of ecological civilization construction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Based on the construction of the evaluation index system of development status, this paper validates the interactive coercive relationship between tourism industry and ecological environment system based on the interactive coercion model, and then using the coupling coordination model, spatial gravity model and other methods, the dynamic evolution characteristics and spatial connection structure of the two systems in the Yangtze River Economic Zone since 1998 are analyzed empirically. The results show that:(1) The evaluation values of the two major systems of the tourism industry and the ecological environment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt both show an increasing trend, and the disequilibrium between regions gradually weakens;(2) There is an interactive stress relationship between the tourism industry and eco-environment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the evolution trajectory conforms to the rhythmic development characteristics of a combination of multiple S-shaped curves;(3) The coordinated development stage of the complex system of the Yangtze River Economic Belt roughly experienced the following evolution process: mild imbalance(1998-2006)-endangered imbalance(2007-2015)-rough coordination(2016-2017);(4) The spatial connection pattern of the regional coupling coordination degree of various provinces and regions is getting closer and closer, and the connection potential energy is steadily increasing. The overall pattern presents a step-type decreasing pattern of “extrude in east-uplift in central-collapse in west”, and the interior of the three major regions also shows significant non-equilibrium characteristics.