中国扩大对美进口的政策效应评估--基于GTAP模型的测算分析

Evaluation of the Policy Effect of China's Expanding Imports to the United States--Based on GTAP Model

通过采用GTAP 10模型,基于贸易竞争力指数,测算中国扩大从美国进口对两国国内均衡和国际均衡的影响。结果表明:中国扩大对美进口对改善美国贸易状况无效,且会对日本、韩国、欧盟带来损害;在最惠国待遇原则下中国应积极扩大矿产、果蔬、牛羊肉制品、大豆进口。为构建更加公平的国际贸易环境,应积极扩大进口规模,满足人民日益增长的美好生活需求,但在未来中美贸易谈判中应避免设定贸易顺差缩减目标,同时应敦促美国放松对高科技产品的出口限制,并在WTO多边贸易框架下解决中美贸易不平衡问题,积极寻求与欧盟、日本、韩国的利益相关点。

By using GTAP 10 model and based on trade competitiveness index,this paper calculates the impact of China’s expansion of imports from the United States on the domestic and international balance of the two countries.The results show that China's expansion of imports to the United States is ineffective in improving the trade situation of the United States,and will bring damage to Japan,South Korea and Europe;under the principle of most favoured nation treatment,China should actively expand the import of minerals,fruits and vegetables,beef and mutton products and soybeans.In order to build a more“fair”international trade environment,we should actively expand the scale of imports to meet the growing needs of the people for a better life.However,we should avoid setting the goal of reducing the trade surplus in the future Sino-US trade negotiations.At the same time,we should urge the United States to relax its export restrictions on high-tech products and solve the problem of Sino-US trade imbalance under the WTO multilateral trade framework,actively seek interest related points with Europe,Japan and South Korea.