基于明斯基理论的中国居民部门杠杆率重估与债务风险探讨

A Study on the Revaluation of Leverage Ratio and Debt Risk of China’s Household Sector based on Minsky Theory

借鉴明斯基"金融不稳定假说",基于"收入—债务"的三种分类,从"流量"层面构建并测算了主要经济体居民部门的"明斯基杠杆率"。研究发现,中国居民部门的杠杆率在2009—2010年以及2016—2017年加速上升,以房贷为主的中长期贷款的快速攀升是"加杠杆"的主要原因。国际比较结果表明,"明斯基杠杆率"的快速上升往往是发达经济体金融危机的前兆。实证结果显示,相对于传统的债务率指标,"明斯基杠杆率"对消费降速和金融危机等宏观变量的解释力度更强,是反映居民宏观杠杆率的良好指标。中央政府应充分警惕居民部门"流量"约束快速增大对宏观经济带来的中长期负面影响。

Based on Minsky’s"financial instability hypothesis"and three classifications of"income-debt",this paper constructs and measures the"Minsky leverage ratio"of the residential sectors of major economies from the"flow"level.The study finds that the leverage ratio of China’s household sector accelerated from 2009 to 2010 and from 2016 to 2017,with the rapid increase of medium and long-term housing loans being the main reason for the"increase in leverage".International comparison results show that the rapid rise of"Minsky leverage ratio"is often the precursor of financial crisis in developed economies.Empirical evidence also suggests that"Minsky leverage ratio"explains macro variables such as the slowdown in consumption and the financial crisis more strongly than traditional debt-ratio measures.This shows that"Minsky leverage ratio"is a good indicator to reflect the macro leverage ratio of residents,and the central government should be fully alert to the negative impact of the rapid increase of"flow"constraints on the macro economy in the medium and long term.