山西省采煤沉陷区EES协调发展时空演化规律研究

Spatial-time evolution of EES coordinated development in coal mining subsidence area of Shanxi Province

基于协调发展和面板数据模型,构建山西省采煤沉陷区“生态—经济—社会”(EES)系统指标体系,结合熵值法和层次分析法,从时空视角分析山西省采煤沉陷区2004—2018年EES系统协调发展演化规律。结果表明:经济子系统在EES系统中所占比重最高,说明经济子系统发展状况在山西省采煤沉陷区EES系统协调发展中发挥的影响最大;2004—2018年,山西省采煤沉陷区EES系统协调发展整体上呈现平稳上升的态势,区域内各个地市EES系统协调发展水平从“严重失调衰退”逐步过渡到了“勉强协调发展”阶段,从“失调衰退区间”发展到了“过渡调和区间”;在空间分布上,区域内经济发展水平更高的地市EES系统协调发展演化进程较为领先。根据研究结果提出了相应的对策建议。

Based on the coordinated development and panel data model,this paper constructs the“ecological economic social”(EES)system index system of coal mining subsidence area in Shanxi Province,from the perspective of time and space combined with entropy method and analytic hierarchy process,analyzes the coordinated development evolution rules of EES system in coal mining subsidence area of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2018.The results show that the economic subsystem accounts for the highest proportion in the EES system,which indicates that the development of economic subsystem has the greatest influence on the coordinated development of EES system in coal mining subsidence area of Shanxi Province;the coordinated development of EES system in coal mining subsidence areas of Shanxi Province shows a steady upward trend on the whole from 2004 to 2018,and the coordinated development level of EES system in various cities in the region gradually transited from“serious imbalance recession”to“barely coordinated development”,from“maladjustment recession interval”to“transition and harmony interval”;in terms of spatial distribution,the coordinated development and evolution process of EES system of cities with higher economic development level in the region is relatively advanced.Finally,according to the research results,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.