新政下农民工落户意愿及其影响因素研究

Research on the Willingness of Migrant Workers to Settle Down and Its Influencing Factors under the New Deal

文章以江苏省为例,利用2019年“江苏省农民工市民化”课题组的问卷调查数据对农民工的落户意愿进行研究。选用二分类Logistic回归模型,通过逐步代入不同特征的变量来挖掘影响因素的潜在信息。研究发现:年龄越大的农民工对城市生活状况和社会融合状况十分敏感,若不能达到预期将导致落户意愿下降;男性农民工相较于女性有更低的落户意愿;家庭人数越多,农民工落户意愿更强;社会融合状况在农民工是否落户的问题中起到了关键作用,农民工在城镇拥有安全感、幸福感、获得感,其落户意愿会大大增强。

Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,this article uses the questionnaire survey data of the research group“Migrant Workers Citizenization in Jiangsu Province”in 2019 to study the willingness of migrant workers to settle down.The two-category Logistic regression model is selected,and the potential information of influencing factors is mined by gradually substituting variables with different characteristics.The study found that older migrant workers are very sensitive to urban living conditions and social integration,and failure to meet expectations will lead to a decline in their willingness to settle;male migrant workers have lower willingness to settle down than women;the larger the number of households,the more farmers Workers are more willing to settle down;the social integration status plays a key role in the question of whether migrant workers settle down,migrant workers have a sense of security,happiness,and sense of gain in cities and towns,and their willingness to settle down will be greatly enhanced.