从不对称相互依赖视角看中缅关系

China-Myanmar Relations from the Perspective of Asymmetric Interdependence

中缅两国自1950年建交以来,双边关系历经了短暂的曲折和多方面的考验,但始终保持向前发展,逐渐趋于成熟。中国是对缅甸最重要最有影响力的周边大国,而缅甸是中国通向孟加拉湾和印度洋的重要陆上通道,具有特殊地缘战略意义,中缅在政治、经济、安全等方面都互有影响、相互依赖。两国出于国内政治稳定、经济发展、战略安全的考量需要维护好双边关系,不断深化合作。中缅对于加强区域合作的共同立场推动了双边关系的发展,而大国博弈因素则对中缅关系具有复杂影响,尤其是美国对缅政策的变化可在很大程度上影响缅甸的国际环境,从而影响中缅合作的密切程度。中缅关系的本质特征是不对称相互依赖关系,缅甸对中国的需求远大于中国对缅甸的需要。这一特点导致缅甸对中国同时存在"向心力"和"离心力",一方面对中缅友好合作关系始终高度重视,另一方面担心中国的强大影响力会威胁缅甸的独立性,因此总是试图引入其他大国力量进行平衡,导致外部因素对中缅关系产生较大影响。但回顾70多年来双边关系的发展历程,缅甸总体上奉行偏向于中国的政策,中缅也总能找到双边利益的结合点,使得两国可以相向而行,基本上保持在和平共处、互利共赢的良性发展轨道上。基于对两国相互依赖关系的认知,可以判断不论缅甸国内局势如何变化,中缅友好合作的长期趋势不会轻易改变。

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Myanmar in 1950,despite twists and turns the bilateral relations have kept moving forward and gradually matured.China and Myanmar are interdependent on each other in terms of politics,economy and security.For the sake of domestic political stability,economic development and strategic security,the two countries need to maintain good bilateral relations and deepen cooperation.Their common position on strengthening regional cooperation has also promoted the development of bilateral relations.The big power game factor has a complex influence on China-Myanmar relationship,especially the change of U.S.policy towards Myanmar can determine the international environment of Myanmar to a great extent,thus affecting the closeness of China-Myanmar cooperation.Due to asymmetrical interdependence,Myanmar has generally chosen to favor China's policy in its foreign cooperation,and China and Myanmar can always find a combination of bilateral interests,thus enabling the two countries to move in the same direction and basically remain on the track of peaceful coexistence,mutual benefit and win-win development.Based on the perception of the interdependence between the two countries,it can be judged that the long-term trend of China-Myanmar friendly cooperation will not change easily,no matter how the situation in Myanmar changes.