两种不同气候环境COVID-19活动相关气候因素比较

CLIMATE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH COVID-19 ACTIVITY IN TWO DIFFERENT CLIMATIC ENVIRONMENTS

目的通过分析新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)日发病例数与气候因素之间的关系,探讨气候因素对不同气候环境中COVID-19发病率的影响。方法收集2020年3—6月莫斯科和新加坡的COVID-19日发病例数及相关气象数据,构建负二项式回归模型,分析COVID-19发病率与气象因子之间的相关性。结果Spearman相关性分析显示,莫斯科日发病人数与日平均气温(Ta)(r=0.39,P<0.001)、日最高气温(Th)(r=0.34,P<0.001)、日最低气温(Tl)(r=0.39,P<0.001)、相对湿度(RH)(r=0.24,P=0.015)、绝对湿度(AH)(r=0.40,P<0.001)、气压(Pa)(r=0.29,P=0.003)、露点温度(Td)(r=0.40,P<0.001)呈正相关;新加坡日发病人数与AH(r=0.24,P=0.009)、Td(r=0.25,P=0.006)呈正相关,与风速(WS)(r=-0.43,P<0.001)、Pa(r=-0.75,P<0.001)呈负相关。负二项式回归分析显示,AH和Pa被纳入莫斯科日发病人数负二项式回归方程,Td、AH、Pa、WS被纳入新加坡日发病人数负二项式回归方程,提示Pa和湿度因素是这两个地区共同的影响因素。结论AH和Pa对COVID-19的传播具有重要影响,尽管莫斯科和新加坡气候环境差别较大,但是这两个地区具有共有的气候影响因子。

Objective To investigate the association of the number of daily COVID-19 cases with climate factors and the impact of climate factors on the incidence rate of COVID-19 in different climatic environments.Methods The number of daily COVID-19 cases and related meteorological data were collected in Moscow and Singapore from March to June 2020,and a negative binomial regression model was constructed to analyze the correlation between the incidence rate of COVID-19 and climate factors.Results The Spearman correlation analysis showed that the number of daily cases in Moscow was positively correlated with daily average temperature(r=0.39,P<0.001),daily highest temperature(r=0.34,P<0.001),daily lowest temperature(r=0.39,P<0.001),relative humidity(r=0.24,P=0.015),absolute humidity(AH)(r=0.40,P<0.001),atmospheric pressure(Pa)(r=0.29,P=0.003),and dew point temperature(Td)(r=0.40,P<0.001);in Singapore,the number of daily cases was positively correlated with AH(r=0.24,P=0.009)and Td(r=0.25,P=0.006)and was negatively correlated with wind speed(WS)(r=-0.43,P<0.001)and Pa(r=-0.75,P<0.001).The negative binomial regression analysis showed that AH and Pa were included in the negative binomial regression equation for the number of daily cases in Moscow,and Td,AH,Pa,and WS were included in the negative binomial regression equation for the number of daily cases in Singapore,suggesting that Pa and humidity were the common influencing factors in these two regions.Conclusion AH and Pa have an important impact on the spread of COVID-19.Although there is a great difference in climatic environment between Moscow and Singapore,AH and Pa are the common climate factors in these two regions.