摘要
山洪灾害对人们的生命财产安全造成极大的危害。雨型是影响水文过程的重要因素,雨型的不确定性将影响临界雨量计算的准确性,给山洪灾害的预警预报带来很大的挑战。基于此,采用Copula函数,以雨型特征参数总雨量和峰值雨强为控制条件,提出了概率雨型设计方法,并通过HEC-HMS水文模型模拟降雨—径流过程,采用试算法计算多情景模式的临界雨量阈值空间。陕西罗敷堡小流域实例计算结果表明:概率雨型设计方法合理且简单实用;HEC-HMS模型对小流域山洪灾害具有较好的模拟效果;前期影响雨量和雨型对临界雨量均有影响,不同条件下二者影响程度不同。
Flash flood causes great harm to people's life and property safety.Rainfall pattern is an important factor affecting the hydrological process.The uncertainty of rainfall pattern will affect the accuracy of critical rainfall calculation,which brings great challenges to the flash flood early warning and forecasting.Based on this,a probabilistic rainfall pattern design method was proposed by using the Copula function and taking the total rainfall and peak rainfall intensity as the control conditions,and the rainfall⁃runoff process was simulated by the HEC⁃HMS hydrological model.A trial algorithm was used to calculate the critical rainfall threshold space under multiple scenarios.Taking a small watershed in Luofubao,Shanxi Province as an example,the calculation results show that the probability rainfall pattern design method is rea⁃sonable,simple and practical.HEC⁃HMS model has a good simulation effect for flash flood in small watershed.Both the antecedent influence rainfall and the rainfall pattern have influence on the critical rainfall,and the influence degree is different under different conditions.
作者
沈炜彬
郝鹏
SHEN Weibin;HAO Peng(Hangzhou City Planning Consultation Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310012,China;Press and Publication Center,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第1期52-57,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779229)。
关键词
山洪灾害
小流域
概率雨型
临界雨量
COPULA函数
flash flood
small watershed
probabilistic rainfall pattern
critical rainfall
Copula function
