要素禀赋与中西部地区数字经济可持续发展——基于机器学习方法

Factor Endowment and the Sustainable Development of Digital Economy in the Middle and West of China:Based on Machine Learning Methods

在地区间数字经济投资"竞赛"日益激烈,并且增速上形成中西部对东部地区赶超之势的背景下,中西部地区的要素禀赋是否可以支撑其数字经济可持续发展是值得深入研讨的问题。运用机器学习方法中的随机森林算法,基于地级市层面数据对24种投入要素进行分析,发现职工平均工资、人均社会消费品零售额、人均科学技术支出、城镇单位从业人员中信息传输计算机服务和软件业从业人员占比4种要素是支撑数字经济发展最为重要的投入要素。进一步运用4种最重要要素的偏效应曲线图进行分析,发现在要素禀赋上,中西部地区数字经济的发展已经同东部地区站到了"同一起跑线上",且大多数城市的重要投入要素已经具备了支撑数字经济可持续发展的基本条件,但城市之间的差距仍然明显。因此,要实现中西部地区数字经济的可持续发展,既要根据不同城市的要素禀赋构成情况实施差异化的补"短板"政策,又要通过推进数字资源的平衡布局来改变城市之间的数字经济不平衡发展状况,以构筑中西部地区数字经济发展的良性循环。

Under the background of increasingly fierce digital economy investment“competition”between regions,and the middle and west of China catching up with the east of China in growth rate,whether the factor endowment of the middle and west of China can support the sustainable development of digital economy is worth further study.The random forest algorithm of machine learning methods are used to analyze the 24 kinds of input factors based on the data of prefecture-level cities.This paper finds that the four kinds of the most important input factors supporting the development of digital economy are the average salary of employees,retail sales of consumer goods per capita,expenditure of science and technology per capita,the proportion of information transmission,computer service and software industry employees in urban units.By further analyzing the skew effect curves of the four kinds of the most important input factors,we find that in terms of factor endowment,the development of digital economy in the middle and west of China has reached the“same starting line”with that in the east of China,and most of the important input factors of cities have the basic conditions to support the sustainable development of digital economy,but the gap between cities is still obvious.Therefore,to realize the sustainable development of digital economy in the middle and west of China,China should implement differentiated policy of“shoring up weak links”according to the composition of factor endowment of different cities,and change the unbalanced development of digital economy among cities by promoting the balanced distribution of digital resources.,so as to form a benign cycle of the development of digital economy in the middle and west of China.