2000年以来风险事件对俄罗斯国际收支冲击的比较分析

The Impacts of Risk Events since Year 2000 on Russia’s Balance of Payments

新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,俄罗斯国际收支运行出现了明显的波动。在此之前,俄罗斯在不到20年时间里曾先后遭受了2008年国际金融危机和2014年克里米亚事件的冲击。该研究比较分析了三次风险事件冲击对俄罗斯国际收支及宏观经济的影响,得出了以下结论:三次冲击在性质上的差异是冲击效应不同的重要原因;金融账户在发生重大风险事件冲击后通常面临着较大的资金流出压力,跨境资金的集中流出又对本币汇率产生了较强的贬值压力;面临风险事件冲击时,对外资产负债状况是决定金融体系能否继续平稳运行的重要因素;更富弹性的汇率制度可以更为有效地应对重大事件冲击。

Russia’s balance of payments fluctuated since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.Previous impacts that inflicted on the country’s balance of payments years include the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Crimean events of 2014.This paper holds that the differences in the nature of the three impacts are principal causes of the difference in the effects thereof.Financial accounts were under the pressure of money outflow upon major risk events and the massive outflow resulted in high pressure of depreciation.In the face of risk events,the financial position of external assets and liability is the key factor behind the stability of financial system,while an exchange regime with higher level of elasticity is an effective mechanism in response to the impact of significant events.