新冠疫情下影响住院人数的因素

Factors affecting the number of hospitalizations in the COVID-19 epidemic

为了解新冠疫情下影响住院人数的因素,通过收集2019年和2020年第一季度江苏省某三级甲等医院的呼吸科住院人数、口罩消耗量、全国疫情确诊人数和中国网等六大主流媒体关于新冠疫情报道的篇数等信息,并应用最小二乘法分析春节期间住院人数发生的变化,探讨2019年与2020年住院人数差与全国疫情确诊人数、新闻报道数和口罩消耗量的关系.结果表明:住院人数差与全国疫情确诊人数的变化趋势存在正相关性,且前者具有滞后效应;住院人数随新闻报道篇数的增多而减少;疫情初期口罩消耗量与住院人数未见明显的关联.

In order to understand the factors affecting the number of hospitalizations in the COVID-19 epidemic,the number of inpatients and the consumption of masks in the respiratory department of a grade 3A hospital in Jiangsu Province in the first quarter of 2019 and 2020 are collected,as well as the number of confirmed cases of the Covid-19,and the number of articles about the Covid-19 reported by six major mainstream medias,such as China Net are collected,the changes in the number of hospitalizations during the Spring Festival are analyzed by using the least-square method.The relationship among the number of hospital admissions in 2019 and 2020,the confirmed cases in China,media reporting and the consumption of masks are investigated,respectively.The results show that there is a positive correlation between the difference in the number of hospitalizations and the changing trend of the number of confirmed cases in the whole country,and the former has a lag effect,the number of hospitalizations decreases with the increase of the number of news reports,and the consumption of masks in the early stages of the epidemic is not significantly related to the number of hospitalizations.