2013—2017年江苏省如皋市恶性肿瘤发病时间趋势分析

Analysis of temporal trend of cancer incidence in Rugao city,Jiangsu province,2013—2017

目的分析江苏省如皋市2013—2017年恶性肿瘤发病变化趋势,为肿瘤防治工作提供科学依据。方法收集如皋市2013—2017年恶性肿瘤发病资料,分别计算不同性别、不同年龄组及不同类别恶性肿瘤的粗发病率、中标率、世标率和年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)等指标。结果2013—2017年,如皋市恶性肿瘤粗发病率、中标率、世标率均未呈现明显升降趋势(APC=0.63%、-1.75%、-1.87%,均P>0.05),男性恶性肿瘤粗发病率、中标率、世标率均明显高于女性。如皋市全人群和男性仅15~44岁年龄组恶性肿瘤粗发病率呈现明显下降趋势(APC=-4.01%,-7.86%,均P<0.05),其余年龄组均未呈现明显升降趋势;女性各年龄组粗发病率均未呈现明显升降趋势。5年间,如皋市恶性肿瘤发病食管癌位列首位,其次为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌和结直肠癌,发病前10位恶性肿瘤中,肺癌粗发病率呈明显上升趋势(APC=5.71%,P<0.05),食管癌和胃癌中标率均呈下降趋势(APC=-6.66%、-5.27%,均P<0.05);男性肺癌粗发病率呈明显上升趋势(APC=7.48%,P<0.05),但胃癌中标率和脑、中枢神经系统肿瘤粗发病率均呈下降趋势(APC=-6.80%、-1.88%,均P<0.05);女性发病前10位恶性肿瘤发病均未呈现明显升降趋势。结论2013—2017年江苏省如皋市恶性肿瘤发病总体较平稳,但肺癌呈快速上升趋势,未来应加强关注并开展针对性防控措施。

Objective To analyze the temporal trend of malignant tumor incidence in Rugao city,Jiangsu province from 2013 to 2017,and to provide a scientific basis for cancer prevention and treatment.Methods The incidence time data of malignant tumors in Rugao city from 2013 to 2017 were collected.The crude incidence,Chinese standard population rate(ASR China),world standard rate(ASR,world)and annual change percentage(APC)of malignant tumors were calculated for different genders,different age groups and different categories.Results From 2013 to 2017,no significantly increasing or decreasing trend was observed in crude incidence,ASR China and ASR world of malignant tumors in Rugao(APC=0.63%,-1.75%,-1.87%,all P>0.05),and all the indices of male malignant tumors were significantly higher than those of female.The crude incidence of malignant tumor in the whole population and male residents of Rugao city showed an significantly decreasing trend(APC=-4.01%,-7.86%,all P<0.05)in age 15-44 group,but there was no signifi⁃cantly decreasing trend in other age groups.The crude incidence of female residents in all age groups showed no obvious trend.In the past 5 years,esophageal cancer ranked first in the incidence of malignant tumors in Rugao,followed by lung cancer,liver cancer,gastric cancer and colorectal cancer.Among the top 10 malignant tumors,the crude incidence of lung cancer showed a significantly increasing trend(APC=5.71%,P<0.05),and the ASR China of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer showed a decreasing trend(APC=-6.66%,-5.27%,all P<0.05).The crude incidence of lung cancer of male showed a significantly increasing trend(APC=7.48%,P<0.05),while the male ASR China of gastric cancer and the crude incidence of brain and central nervous system tumors showed a decreasing trend(APC=-6.80%,-1.88%,all P<0.05),No obvious trend was observed in the incidence of the top 10 malignancies of female.Conclusions From 2013 to 2017,the incidence of malignant tumors in Rugao city,Jiangsu province is relatively stable,but lung cancer show a rapidly increasing trend.In the future,more attention should be paid to lung cancer,and target⁃based prevention and control measures should be taken.