概率法气藏储量计算中评估参数分布函数的确定

Application of Probability Method in Parameter Distribution Function of Gas Reserve Evaluation

东方A气田纵向上的气水界面、平面上的含气砂体分布范围及部分储量计算参数难以确定,导致储量预测结果存在偏差。针对此问题,运用概率法合理确定油气储量评估参数分布函数,并对各参数进行了敏感性分析,进而实现对整个气田的储量评估。由于海上气田钻井资料数据较少,因此采用了三角分布函数,通过对各计算单元进行算术求和的方法预测全气田的储量。运用确定性容积法预测的探明储量与运用概率法计算的P_(mean)储量接近,结果较为可靠。

In view of the problem that the vertical gas-water interface,the horizontal gas-bearing sand body distribution range,and some reserve calculation parameters in the Dongfang A gas field are difficult to determine,which leads to deviations in reserve predictions.Therefore,the probability method is used to reasonably determine oil and gas reserve evaluation parameters distribution function,and carry out sensitivity analysis of each parameter in the reserve assessment to realize the assessment of the reserves of the entire gas field.Research has shown that for the characteristics of less drilling and less data in offshore gas fields,the reserve parameters can be used with triangular distribution function,and the calculation units are arithmetic summed to obtain the reserves prediction results of the entire gas field.The P_(mean) reserves calculated by probability method are close to the proved reserves calculated by the deterministic volume method,indicating that the current reserves calculated by the deterministic volume method are reliable.