基于Agent建模的BIM技术扩散机理研究

An Agent-based Modeling Approach for Investigating the Diffusion of BIM Technology

基于技术创新理论,利用Agent建模方法研究建筑信息模型(BIM)在建筑企业间的扩散机理。以复杂网络为建模载体,基于阈值模型构建建筑企业决策模型,分析用户偏好、社交网络结构和BIM技术成熟度对企业BIM技术采纳行为的影响。构建一个基于Agent的BIM技术扩散仿真模型,并利用NetLogo软件开发仿真平台,依据仿真结果预测BIM技术扩散趋势,提炼驱动BIM技术扩散的关键因素,最终提出促进BIM技术扩散的政策建议。研究结果表明,社会网络拓扑结构对BIM技术扩散起着重要作用;重连概率能够显著增加BIM技术扩散深度,但是对扩散速度的影响呈现复杂动态性;在同一网络结构下,节点间的相互作用对驱动BIM技术扩散具有一定的稳定性;平均度能在一定程度上缩小网络结构差异;提高初始采纳者比例能够促进创新“起飞”,缩短扩散周期,加快扩散速度,但是对稳定扩散深度影响不大。

An agent-based modeling method is implemented to explore the diffusion of BIM technology among construction companies based on mechanism of technology innovation.Based on the complex network and threshold model,the decision-making model of construction companies is established to analyze the impact of consumer preferences,social network structure and the maturity of BIM technology on the adoption behavior of construction companies.Then,an agent-based BIM technology diffusion simulation model is built,and Netlogo is used for simulation.According to the simulation results,the diffusion trend of BIM technology is predicted,the critical factors driving the diffusion of BIM technology are extracted,and suggestions to promote the diffusion of BIM technology are put forward.The results also show that:the social network structure plays an important role in the diffusion of BIM technology.The probability of reconnection can significantly increase the diffusion depth of BIM technology,but the impact on the diffusion speed presents complex and dynamic changes.Under the same network topology,the interaction between nodes has a certain degree of stability in driving the proliferation of BIM technology.The average degree can reduce the difference of network structures to a certain extent.An increase in the proportion of initial adopters can promote the"take-off"of innovation,shorten the innovation diffusion cycle,and accelerate the diffusion speed,but it has limited effect on the final stable diffusion depth.